HIV Sentinel Surveillance and Trends of HIV epidemic in India

Arvind Pandey, National Institute of Medical Statistics (ICMR), India
Mariamma Thomas, Institute for Research in Medical Statistics, ICMR
Damodar Sahu, National Institute of Research in Medical Statistics (ICMR), India

HIV epidemic in India is concentrated among high risk groups include IDU, sex workers, truck drivers, migrant workers, and MSM. Mixed-effects logistic regression model was used to estimate trends in HIV prevalence among pregnant women attending and high risk groups from 2002-2007. To account for the clustering of women and men within sites, random effects were specified on the intercept. Estimates from these models were calibrated to the National Family Health Survey prevalence and then used in the back calculation of trends. The HIV prevalence for adult (age 15–49) males and females together has been showing a declining trend during past six years. It was 0.3% in the year 2007 against 0.45% in 2002. The percentage of infections among males and females was around 60 and 40 respectively. The epidemic is stable at the national level, showed a decline high prevalence states and increase in some low prevalence states.