From the Compression of Mortality Scenario to the Shifting Mortality One: The Canadian Experience

Nadine Ouellette, Université de Montréal
Robert R. Bourbeau, Université de Montréal

The mortality decrease of the last century has led to substantial modifications in the shape of the survival curve. Recent studies have suggested a number of indicators measuring these changes, which are easy to implement and offer intuitive interpretation. However, these indicators are developed in a parametric setting, which implies fairly rigid theoretical assumptions and modeling structure. In this paper, we propose a flexible nonparametric approach based on regression splines, specifically B-splines with penalties known as P-splines, to improve our monitoring of transformations in the survival curve over time. Our study focuses on Canada, for which there have been very few studies on the topic. Canadian provinces are first compared against each other using the Canadian Human Mortality Database, and the Human Mortality Database then allows for an analysis of the Canadian experience in an international perspective.