Estimates of HIV Incidence Profiles for Sub-Saharan Africa with Projected Declines in Fertility

Jason Thomas, University of Washington
Samuel J. Clark, University of Washington

In this study we explore the impact of the HIV epidemic on total fertility for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Data on HIV prevalence from the Demographic and Health Surveys are used to estimate age profiles in HIV incidence for several geographic regions using a multi-state cohort-component model for population projection developed by Heuveline (2003), namely CCMPP. This model incorporates important links between the demographic and epidemiological components of population growth and disease spread. In particular, sub-fecundity among HIV-infected women, conditional on time since infection, is explicitly included in the model. This allows us to assess the influence on fertility by comparing population projections to simulations in which no sub-fecundity is experienced by HIV-positive women. It is crucial that CCMPP partitions the population into five-year age groups because fertility, incidence and the age distribution are all dependent on age.