Patterns of Stall in Fertility Decline and Their Determinants in Eastern Africa

Alex C. Ezeh, African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)
Blessing Mberu, African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)
Jacques Emina Be-Ofuriyua, African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)

We examine patterns of stall in fertility decline in four Eastern African countries using data from four rounds of Demographic and Health Surveys. Kenya and Tanzania experienced a stall in fertility decline, while Uganda and Zimbabwe show no stall in fertility decline. Both Kenya and Tanzania have experienced a stall, and fertility decline continued among the most educated women and in some regions. In Uganda and Zimbabwe, stalled fertility decline is observed among the most educated women and in some regions. Despite continued fertility decline in Uganda, the country has a pre-transition fertility level of 6.7 children per woman compared to Zimbabwe’s total period fertility rate of 3.8. The most common factors associated with fertility trends in the sub-region are contraceptive use and infant and under-5 mortality. Our findings call for focus on specific groups within countries, repositioning of contraceptive use and reduction in infant and under-5 mortality.