Demographic Change: A Security Risk for Germany? Projection of the Quantitative and Qualitative Military Manpower Supply in the Year 2030

Wenke Apt, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

With demographic aging, the German military faces severe recruitment challenges due to an overlap of civilian and military manpower demand and increased job requirements for soldiers. The objective of the present study is to estimate the quantitative and qualitative military manpower supply in the year 2030. The underlying theoretical perspective is multifaceted; it draws upon the economic framework of military manpower supply and demand, standard occupational choice and random utility theory. Based on data from federal statistics, surveys and the German Department of Defense, preliminary results suggest a significant negative relationship between educational attainment and both enlistment propensity and actual enlistment. The odds of military propensity and actual enlistment are lower for females; they also decrease with age. Youths from economically weaker regions have high odds of considering a military career and enlisting. These results indicate various recruitment challenges and a potential gap between qualitative manpower supply and demand.