Cumulative Risk and Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence in Greater Mumbai

Namrata Agarwal, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)
B. Yeole, Indian Cancer Society

Information on cancer incidence trends in a community forms the scientific basis for planning and organising prevention, diagnosis and treatment of cancer. Probability of developing cancer in the entire life span of the people of Greater Mumbai was estimated. A method based on cumulative risk of cancer was used to estimate the probabilities using lung cancer data collected by the population based Bombay Cancer Registry from 1982 to 2005. For evaluation of trends, linear regression model based on logarithm of the observed incidence rates is used. Annual percentage change was also computed for the evaluation. The results show a statistically significant decreasing trend in males and a statistically significant increasing trend among females. The probability estimates indicate that one out of every 74 men and one out of every 242 women will contract lung cancer at some time in their whole life in the absence of other causes of death.