Demographic Analysis of War-Related Mortality and Migration in Liberia, 1989-2003

Romesh Silva, University of California, Berkeley

In 2003, the Accra Comprehensive Peace Agreement concluded fourteen years of civil war in Liberia. During the conflict, the civilian population was affected by hostilities through war-related mortality (both through direct civilian killings and increases in preventable diseases, resulting from the disruption to health care, food security and transportation systems). This paper presents demographic analysis developed for the Liberian Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC). The analysis draws on data from the Demographic and Health Survey and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, pre- and post-conflict Censuses and data collected by the Liberian TRC. It presents estimates of war-related mortality alongside analysis of conflict-related migration. This paper is the first scientific paper on estimating the full mortality impact of the Liberian civil war on civilian mortality. It draws heavily on classical child and adult mortality estimation techniques used in developing countries and intercensal survival methods (including the Generalized Growth Balance Method and the Synthetic Extinct Generations Method).