Life Course Transformation of Fertility Process in Japan: Where did the Reduction Occur to Which Cohort by What Causes?

Ryuichi Kaneko, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan

In this study, first I reconstruct the historical development of the age specific fertility rates experienced by Japanese female cohorts to identify when the reduction was initiated by which cohort and what was followed among the successive cohorts. According to the observation on the Lexis mapping of reconstructed rates, it was the female cohort born in early 1950's that initiated the transformation process lasting until today with simple childbearing delay caused by marriage postponement. The detailed observation reveals more comprehensive view on the life course transformation in the society. Then I decomposed the rate changes into those caused by changes in marital composition and in marital fertility which is further decomposed into contribution of structural factors like educational upgrading and/or marriage delay, and of behavioral factor as residual of marital fertility by parity. The result reveals that the possibly intentional behavioral changes of married couples stated among those with wives born in 1960's.