Moving In and Out of Nairobi Slums: Evidence from the NUHDSS

Donatien Beguy, African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)
Netsayi Mudege, African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)

This paper examines the determinants of migration in two Nairobi slums using longitudinal data collected since 2003, under the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System to evaluate health and demographic trends. The migration intensity is particularly high in the two slums – 24.4% of the residents move out of the slums every year while 25.4% move in every year. No age group below 50 years old has less than 10% chance to move in or out of the slums every year. The annual immigration rate even reaches 39% in the 15-24 age group. There is evidence of intense circular migration system whereby the majority of the slum dwellers are short-term migrants spending fewer than three years in the same slum. The multivariate analysis shows the complex combination of demographic and economic status in explaining migration. Results call for further analysis of the health determinants and consequences of migration.