Population Projection and Its Socioeconomic Implications in India: A State-Level Projection till 2020

Puspita Datta, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

Population projections are imperative for national planning. Present paper attempts to examine implications of population growth by 2020 for two Indian States Uttar Pradesh (UP), and Tamil Nadu (TN) belongs to two different stages of demographic transition. The paper projects future population and socio-economic and demographic situations till 2026, assuming 2005 as base period, using data from various sources (Census, RCH, SRS, and Educational Statistics). On economic front, TN showing better prospect compared to UP. Secondary-school age population shows declining trend up to 2010 and thereafter a slight increase until 2020 in UP, while it remains unchanged in TN. Health care resources will required more in UP. Proportion of population at high health risk will increase substantially in UP while change is not significant in other states and accordingly, required health expenditure per person will be noticeably higher. Although, future situation is better, UP still remains disadvantageous in 2020.