Achieving Uttar Pradesh's Population Policy Goals through Demand-Based Family Planning Programs: Taking Stock at the Mid-Point

Imelda Zosa-Feranil, Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA)
Maria Raquel Borda, Centre for Development and Population Activities (CEDPA)

The goal of the 2000 Population Policy of Uttar Pradesh (UP), India’s most populous state, is improved quality of life through population stabilization. Recent data (NFHS-3, 2005-2006) indicate notable mortality improvements in UP. Fertility decline, however, has stagnated; unmet need for family planning is very high. This paper explores two projection scenarios: (1) unmet need remaining constant, and (2) zero unmet need by 2016. The analysis uses the DemProj, FamPlan, and RAPID models to generate demographic projections and assess development implications. Results show that eliminating unmet need will lead to near replacement fertility by 2016, potentially reduced number and proportion of high-risk births, and much lower child mortality. Potentially smaller populations imply lower nutrition, health and education requirements than what would emerge under the constant unmet need scenario. Analysis results were presented to UP stakeholders who reemphasized commitment to family planning and recommended appropriate measures to address unmet need.