Trend Reversal in Marriage in Sweden

Sofi Ohlsson, Stockholm University

Sweden has seen a reversal in marriage trends, from mainly declining marriage rates since the late 1960's to increasing rates from 1998 and onwards. By applying event-history techniques to Swedish register data, this study shows that the recent reversal cannot be ascribed to compositional changes in the various demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the population. There really is a new pattern and this does not conform very well to that of continually declining marriage rates as is generally depicted in demographic theory. Furthermore, this study shows that the new marriage trend is related to recent increases in fertility and that marriage and childbearing are still closely related events at the individual level. This brings new light to the debate about the relationship between marriage and fertility in a country where these two life events are largely seen as only loosely related to each other.