Reduced Migration during Civil War

Pratikshya Bohra, Princeton University
Douglas S. Massey, Princeton University

There is a general consensus in the migration literature on the linear positive relationship between violence from conflict and migration. This paper adds a new perspective to the literature by showing that in places experiencing modest levels of violence during civil conflicts, violence significantly reduces the odds of out-migration. Using data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study (CVFS) and Maoist-related violence during the decade-long Maoist insurgency in Nepal, the study also shows the relevance of contemporary theories of migration in predicting individual’s migratory decisions independent of the level of violence. Although individual differences in physical and human capital do not affect the impact of violence on migration, violence interacts with gender and marital status leading to different effects of violence on migration. The study improves on the existing models for migration during violence by predicting individual migration decisions to competing destinations while controlling for other crucial determinants of migration.